The gathering storm : How Spain could be ripped apart

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Tension between Madrid and the Catalan government could lead to civil war, a top academic has warned. Pictured, clashes in the region earlier this month

The volatile stand-off between Madrid and Catalan separatists has chilling echoes with the turmoil that led to the collapse of Yugoslavia

TENSION over Catalan independence could spill over into a second Spanish Civil War, a political expert has warned.

The volatile stand-off between Madrid and Catalan separatists has chilling echoes with the turmoil that led to the devastating conflict that killed 140,000 people in former Yugoslavia 20 years ago, claims political and military analyst Sara Plana.

The Spanish government plans to take unprecedented control of Catalonia's key affairs and halt the region's push for independence after a partial referendum earlier this month saw violence break out as police dragged voters out of polling stations.

As tension mounted during the day, Spanish cops fired rubber bullets and beat people with batons as they tried to disperse crowds gathering to vote.

Police also forcibly dragged people out of polling stations as they tried to vote.

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Supporters of Catalan independence are gearing up for resistance against Madrid's planned takeover of regional powers

Plana, writing in War on the Rocks, claims politicians must not underestimate the danger of the stand-off disintegrating into armed conflict.

She says Madrid's authority was weakened in Catalonia when local cops refused to disrupt the referendum vote and regional politicians ignored orders from the national government - which could give hope to hard-line separatists.

And Spain's shaky economy, especially the fact that Catalonians resent paying more in tax than they get back in investment, is another concern.

The region represents a fifth of Spain's GDP and there is anger that the population pay more taxes to central government than are returned to the area.

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From 1936 to 1939 Spain was ravaged by civil war. File picture

In Yugoslavia, wealthy Slovenia and Croatia were angry that they had to share their money with less well-off regions, Plana writes.

The Spanish state may also fear other separatist movements in Spain - such as the Basque region - could take heart from Catalonia's boldness.

She said: "In perhaps the most alarming parallel to Yugoslavia, a number of nations within Spain have separatist aspirations, and an independent Catalonia could be just the first of many dominoes to fall.

"Catalan independence could therefore reveal the fragility of the project of Spanish governance, which is why the state may be willing to go to war to preserve it."

Civil war and violent separatist groups are hardly new to Spain.

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Flames rise after a car bomb exploded in central Madrid in October 2000. The attack was attributed to Basque separatist group Eta