The mathematics of change, the Arab Spring and a dream deferred

Custodians of history will not be strangers to the uncertainties associated with and the complexities of change.

Just seven years ago, the Arab Spring started with spontaneous mass demonstrations across the Middle East. It spelt the end of the entrenched regimes in Tunisia and Egypt. It also shook the conservative rulers of the Gulf sparking vicious civil wars in Libya, Yemen and Syria. Some dictators were ousted while monarchies trembled for their thrones.

What then went wrong despite the promises of jobs, dignity and freedom that brought cheering crowds of youthful Arabs on to the streets.




It is certainly a tale of unrealistic expectations, political naivety, an absence of democratic institutions, and the opportunism of Islamists and extremists who plotted their seizure of power.

There was no doubt that the Arab Spring unlocked hopes that could not be fulfilled. It also ran into the conservative societies of the Arab world, the indifference of those outside the big cities and the opposition of Islamists who labelled the young demonstrators as irreligious stooges of the West.


THE OUTCOME

Egypt :

In place of Hosni Mubarak, the old conservative in Cairo, Egypt is now ruled by a more ruthlessly repressive military dictator.

Immediately after Mubarak, a new Islamist government was swept into power but none of the original demands — for jobs, cheap food, opportunity and dignity — were met. The incompetent Morsi government, with no experience of ruling and focused principally on ideology and Islamism, polarised the country. Mass demonstrations gave the military, smarting at its loss of privileges, the excuse to return to power.





Libya :

You will recall that Colonel Gaddafi was hunted down and knifed to death in a roadside drain. However, Libyan rebels did not draw on their western allies’ expertise to bring the country together. They turned on each other in power struggles that have split the country in half, set tribe against tribe and allowed criminal gangs to send thousands of desperate migrants to their deaths in the Mediterranean. The country is yet to know peace.

Yemen :

Yemen was able to eventually force out its wily president after 30 years. However, it did not lead to democracy and development for this impoverished corner of Arabia but to a tribal uprising. Foreign intervention and devastating bombing and shelling has left much of the country starving and suffering from rampant disease.





Syria :

None can dispute the fact that it is in Syria that the agony of the Arab Spring’s failure has been greatest. The Assad regime saw the protesters as an existential threat and began a six-year attempt to snuff out all opposition with maximum force — at a cost now of 400,000 people dead and 11 million Syrians displaced. This has become the greatest refugee crisis since the Second World War.


Overall :
It must be noted that the monarchies appeared largely to have survived the turbulence, though most are still reeling from the aftershocks. Anger at rising prices is seething in Jordan while Morocco is wary of its Islamists.

Surprisingly, Saudi Arabia was the one part of the Arab world almost untouched by the Arab Spring. Perhaps having learnt the lesson of the uprising, the country is now seeing the greatest social change and liberalisation thanks to the reforming zeal of Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman.